Fight Predictions

We asked a high profile boxing group on Facebook for their opinions on this fight and they did not disappoint.

54% of the people thought Pacquiao would win by knockout.

22% thought it would be Manny again by a decision.

13% said Marquez would win by decision.

10% thought that Marquez would win by knockout.

1% copped out and said the fight would end in a draw.

So here is a little bit of history between the two.

The first fight took place back on May 8, 2004.  It was in Las Vegas, Nevada at the MGM Grande.  That fight ended in a draw.

The rematch was also held in Las Vegas but this time at Madalay Bay.  It took place on march 15, 2008 and Pacquiao was awarded the win but it came by split decision.

The third fight was on November 12, 2011.  It took place at MGM again in Las Vegas.

Every one of these fights have been controversial.  Pacquiao knocked Marquez down three times in the first round of fight one but referee Joe Cortez allowed the fight to go on.  If he hadn’t there probably would never have been a rematch.

Instead, Marquez came back and was impressive after the first round, but it seemed like the judges couldn’t get past the first round performance by Pac.

The third decision was booed loudly by the crowd.  Each time Marquez supporters believe Manny’s more aggressive style, his being more famous, and his promoter being more powerful as to the reasons the scorecards did not go their fighter’s way.

So, how do we think this one plays out?  It’s important to note that the
Vegas oddsfavor Pacquaio, giving him a 66% chance of winning compared to only 33% for Marquez.I think there is some value with the underdog.  He’s been strong in the previous two meetings and could easily have won each.  I don’t see any reason that he can’t put up a fight like that again.  This time he might even get a break or two and end up being awarded the win.

I do think this one goes the distance.  Both fighters have knockout power, there is no denying that.  But, since this is the fourth time they will have faced off they are very familiar with one another.  That should be both can defend what the other likes to do.

The only problem I see is you know Manny is going to come in a little heavier.  That typically gives a boxer a little more power behind their punches, more stamina, and the ability to take a few more hits.  That will be the biggest disadvantage Marquez faces.  That and he’s almost 40 years old.  He’s no spring chicken, but either is Manny.

I’m going with Marquez in a decision.