Fight Predictions

mannyPacman

We asked a high profile boxing group on Facebook for their opinions on this fight and they did not disappoint.

54% of the people thought Pacquiao would win by knockout.

22% thought it would be Manny again by a decision.

13% said Marquez would win by decision.

10% thought that Marquez would win by knockout.

1% copped out and said the fight would end in a draw.

So here is a little bit of history between the two.

The first fight took place back on May 8, 2004.  It was in Las Vegas, Nevada at the MGM Grande.  That fight ended in a draw.

The rematch was also held in Las Vegas but this time at Madalay Bay.  It took place on march 15, 2008 and Pacquiao was awarded the win but it came by split decision.

The third fight was on November 12, 2011.  It took place at MGM again in Las Vegas.

Every one of these fights have been controversial.  Pacquiao knocked Marquez down three times in the first round of fight one but referee Joe Cortez allowed the fight to go on.  If he hadn’t there probably would never have been a rematch.

Instead, Marquez came back and was impressive after the first round, but it seemed like the judges couldn’t get past the first round performance by Pac.

The third decision was booed loudly by the crowd.  Each time Marquez supporters believe Manny’s more aggressive style, his being more famous, and his promoter being more powerful as to the reasons the scorecards did not go their fighter’s way.

So, how do we think this one plays out?  It’s important to note that the Vegas odds favor Pacquaio, giving him a 66% chance of winning compared to only 33% for Marquez.

I think there is some value with the underdog.  He’s been strong in the previous two meetings and could easily have won each.  I don’t see any reason that he can’t put up a fight like that again.  This time he might even get a break or two and end up being awarded the win.

I do think this one goes the distance.  Both fighters have knockout power, there is no denying that.  But, since this is the fourth time they will have faced off they are very familiar with one another.  That should be both can defend what the other likes to do.

The only problem I see is you know Manny is going to come in a little heavier.  That typically gives a boxer a little more power behind their punches, more stamina, and the ability to take a few more hits.  That will be the biggest disadvantage Marquez faces.  That and he’s almost 40 years old.  He’s no spring chicken, but either is Manny.

I’m going with Marquez in a decision.

Pacquiao v Marquez 3

HBO Sports released a highlight video the third fight in the Pacquiao Marquez series and it’s full of the best stuff from this match.  I’m not sure why whoever uploaded this to YouTube added Adele music to the background, so you might want to turn the volume down before pushing play.  It doesn’t really fit to have a love song being played while these two gladiators go at it.

This was a controversial decision. Many fans thought that the only reason Pacquiao was awarded the victory was because he is more famous. His promoter is more powerful. But it’s likely the boos came because Marquez had a significant advantage in terms of fans in the crowd.

If you think Manny didn’t deserve the victory you have to look at the average punches landed. Marquez was outlanded by three per round. Manny got 14 punches landed, while Juan only had 11.

More facts: Pacquiao threw 142 more punches. He had a higher percentage of power shots than Marquez. That stats were 176/578 landed to throw for Pacquiao. He had 117/274 power punches and 59/304 jabs. Marquez was 138/468 in total punches, 100/246 for power punches, and 38/182 jabs.

He should have won every single fight so far. This is why it’s no surprise that he’s the favorite for the fourth matchup.  The round-by-round stats show that it wasn’t really that close.  The judges clearly saw this as being dominated by Pacquiao.  You have to wonder why the fans disagreed so strongly.  I’m guessing it’s because of a bias in who they liked before the fight started.